Honest Odds

For families making a binding decision

The published admit rate is not your admit rate.

Every headline number includes recruited athletes, legacies, QuestBridge scholars and development cases. An unhooked applicant’s real odds are materially lower — and almost nobody will tell a family that to their face.

We will. Free, before you pay us anything.

Get your real odds — freeNo card. Sign in with Google. About four minutes.
From a real review — unhooked applicant, top 8% rank
SchoolPublishedYour odds
Stanford3.9%1–2%
Rice (ED)7.5%11–14%
UT Austin — CS29%8–15%
Purdue (EA)50%25–35%

Class rank is the elephant

Outside the top 10–15%, a student faces a hard ceiling at most selective schools regardless of GPA, essays or activities. We say so plainly instead of letting a family over-budget reaches.

Your ED chip is worth real money

Binding Early Decision is the single most valuable lever you hold. We quantify the trade — a 2% lottery ticket versus a 40% admit — so the choice is deliberate rather than sentimental.

We check essays for AI

Overpolished openers, em-dash overuse, stacked triplets. We flag detector risk and rewrite suspect lines in the student's own voice. Authenticity beats polish.

Pricing

An independent counselor charges $3,000–$10,000 for a package. We charge $29.99 for the review itself — and the part that shows you whether we are any good is free.

Free sample

$0

See your real odds before you pay anything.

  • Pass 1 — positioning & your authentic spike
  • Pass 2 — honest, deflated admit odds for your full list
  • Expected number of admits, calculated
  • One sample per family
Start the free sample

Full review

$29.99

The complete seven-pass review for this application cycle.

  • Everything in the sample, plus:
  • Pass 3 — ED/EA lever optimization
  • Pass 4 — essay review, line edits & AI-authorship check
  • Pass 5 — school-by-school submit/withhold table
  • Pass 6 — blind spots ranked by damage
  • Pass 7 — prioritized action list with deadlines
  • Adversarial second-opinion pass
  • Unlimited re-runs and follow-up questions through the cycle
Unlock the full review

One-time, covers this application cycle.

Fee waiver — the full review, free

The families who most need honest advice are usually the ones paying nothing for it today. If you qualify for a Common App or NACAC fee waiver, receive free or reduced lunch, or are Pell-eligible, you get the complete review at no cost.

Not a trimmed-down version. The same seven passes, the same second opinion, the same unflinching numbers.

Apply for a waiver